While progress has been noted, the context remains fragile, necessitating additional efforts, particularly due to increased military spending.
An IMF mission has been present in Kinshasa since Wednesday to conduct the sixth review of the three-year program. It will collaborate with government teams until May 8th. For the first time, the DRC is undergoing this level of assessment without major incidents with the international financial institution. It is also the first time the country has completed the fourth review, validated the fifth, and embarked on the sixth.
Since 2020, the country has tripled its domestic revenues and external resources. This has notably allowed for a significant increase in the number of civil servants, rising from 1.2 million to 1.6 million, with an average salary increase of 53% in real terms since 2019. The public service pension fund has seen its number of members rise from 190,000 to over one million people.
A Disbursement of $200 Million on the Horizon?
However, the average income per capita remains modest. Hence, the IMF remains concerned about expenditure balance. The main challenge of this sixth review of the program is to strengthen budget management and cash flow control, taking into account significant military expenditures.
Expenditures related to security and humanitarian aid, which accounted for 3% in 2021, rose to 15% in 2022 and 22% in 2023. For the first quarter of 2024, they already reached 27% and are almost always incurred through emergency procedures.
In such circumstances, the country should pay attention to the management of other expenditures, recommends the IMF. On his part, Finance Minister Nicolas Kazadi specifies that the operating expenses of state institutions have been reduced and could be further reduced. This management will be at the heart of discussions with the IMF team. If the results are deemed satisfactory, this final review could lead to a disbursement of over $200 million.