On Tuesday, March 5th, voters across fifteen states and one territory will cast their ballots in what is known as the “Super Tuesday,” a crucial date in the United States presidential primary calendar. This year’s event is expected to solidify the inevitability of a Trump-Biden showdown in November 2024.
Traditionally, the Super Tuesday propels candidates towards their party’s nomination or dashes their hopes entirely. However, this year, the outcome seems almost predetermined. Democratic candidate Joe Biden faces no serious contenders for the nomination, a typical scenario for an incumbent president. In a more unusual turn, Donald Trump, a former president seeking to return to the White House, has overwhelmingly dominated the Republican competition thus far.
Former United States Ambassador to the UN under Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, had previously committed to remaining a candidate at least until Super Tuesday. Therefore, Tuesday represents the last chance for the sole remaining rival of Donald Trump, as the former president has won all states that have held primaries except for the one on Sunday in Washington.
Millions of voters from Maine in the northeast to California on the west coast, and Texas in the south to American Samoa in the Pacific, will participate. Other states including Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia will also vote.
To secure the nomination, candidates must garner a certain number of delegates who will then attend their party’s national convention. The majority of states holding primaries on Tuesday allocate their delegates based on a winner-takes-all principle. Therefore, the candidate with the most votes secures all the state’s delegates, regardless of the exact vote count.
For the Republican nomination, 1,215 delegates are needed, half of the total 2,429 who will select the Republican presidential candidate at the convention in July. Donald Trump currently has 247 delegates, while Nikki Haley has 24. With 874 delegates at stake on Tuesday, Trump is expected to build an almost insurmountable lead early in March. His campaign team predicts he will secure 773 delegates on Super Tuesday and become mathematically unbeatable two weeks after that.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley contends that the 40% of votes she received in New Hampshire and her home state demonstrate a Republican Party still divided over Donald Trump. She also argues that her chances of defeating Joe Biden in November would be much higher than those of the former president, highlighting the age disparity between the two candidates. Some experts speculate that Haley’s persistence may be fueled by hopes that Trump will be prevented from competing in November due to legal troubles or potential health issues.
For the Democratic Party, 3,934 delegates are at stake, with the same principle applying. Joe Biden, whose nomination is seemingly a formality as the incumbent president, needs to reach the magical number of 1,968 delegates. He has already secured 206 delegates and could potentially clinch the nomination in March.
The Republican National Convention will take place in July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while the Democratic convention will be held in August in Chicago, Illinois. This sets the stage for the longest presidential campaign in United States history.