In its paper “African Mutations” published this week, the Global Center for Climate Mobility documents the current realities of migration on the continent due to climate change and future scenarios. Interview with Sarah Rosengaertner, the senior adviser at this research center.
Up to 5% of Africa’s population could be displaced by 2050 due to climate change, notes the Global Center for Climate Mobility. This represents up to 113 million people.
As we look toward the future, it’s important to consider the patterns of human migration and how they will shape our world. While many might imagine large waves of people moving across continents, the truth is that most migration happens within countries, with more than 90% of people choosing to stay close to their place of origin. However, there are still significant projections for cross-border migration within Africa, with an estimated 1.2 million people making the move. So while the world may not be experiencing massive movements of people over long distances, it’s clear that migration remains a crucial factor in shaping our communities and societies.” Said Sarah Rosengaertner.
More specifically, in which areas will the departures and arrivals of populations be affected?
“Climate mobility hotspots are points of strong concentration, and movement, either entry or exit. And these hotspots are appearing all over the continent, especially in the Sahelian zone, along the coasts, and in cities. Border areas are becoming hotspots, between Niger and Nigeria for example, around Lake Victoria and also in the Horn of Africa. Rural areas will see farmers move out of the river plains, and pastoral lands could experience significant population displacements.” Added the senior adviser Sarah Rosengaertner.