In a matter of hours, Ursula von der Leyen will learn if she retains her position as President of the European Commission. The outgoing president faces a crucial vote on Thursday, July 18th. Her reappointment is far from guaranteed, as securing sufficient support from European parliamentarians remains uncertain.
Just a day before the vote, the European judiciary criticized the German conservative for a lack of transparency during the procurement of COVID-19 vaccines. Additionally, her relations with the far-right have come under scrutiny. The secret ballot vote promises to be tightly contested.
Five years ago, Ursula von der Leyen clinched victory by a narrow margin of just nine votes. This time, she is once again bracing for a suspenseful vote. On paper, von der Leyen has enough votes within her coalition. However, defections are expected, particularly among French Republicans and Italian Socialists. She will need support beyond her core group.
Her speech on Thursday morning will be closely watched: will she go far enough on the Green Deal to secure votes from the environmentalists? Will she clarify her stance on her relations with the far-right?
Von der Leyen has been actively engaging with members of the European Parliament in a bid to garner as much support as possible, including a meeting with Socialist deputy François Kalfon, who has pledged his vote for her. “She has assured us of maintaining the cordon sanitaire,” he explained. “But there is no blank check; we will practice due diligence throughout her term to ensure the commitments she made are fulfilled as promised.”
Von der Leyen has faced criticism for her leniency towards members of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. The faction led by Giorgia Meloni could potentially sway the vote either way.
Von der Leyen’s team has emphasized the high stakes of this vote, warning that failure to reappoint her could trigger a political crisis that would destabilize the Union. “There is no Plan B,” her team reiterated.
As the European Parliament prepares for this critical vote, the future leadership of the European Commission hangs in the balance, with von der Leyen’s political career and the stability of the EU at stake.