According to an International Crisis Group analysis of the power relations among jihadist groups in northeastern Nigeria, Boko Haram has strengthened its holdings around Lake Chad even after its leader Abubakar Shekau passed away in May 2021.
The faction led by Shekau, known as JAS, has consolidated its presence despite ongoing challenges from the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and continued threats to civilian populations. This consolidation comes at a time when Nigeria is attempting to close displaced persons camps in Borno State.
Following the invasion of the Sambisa forest and the demise of Abubakar Shekau, loyalists of JAS retreated to the islands of Lake Chad and the Mandara Mountains along the Cameroon border.
Contrary to expectations of decline, the group has reinforced its position. Vincent Foucher, a researcher at CNRS and author of the recent report, explains, “JAS has gained control of significant areas, maintaining a strong foothold. They are accustomed to combat in the lake’s marshy context and exhibit considerable strength in other parts of Borno State. There is evident resilience on the side of JAS, with notable attacks against civilians in Chad, Niger, and Cameroon.”
The uncertain balance of power has put pressure on ISWAP, leading to internal tensions and suspicions. Foucher notes, “Defeat breeds suspicion and concern. There is a search for traitors within the movement and among the surrounding civilian population. Additionally, the group needs to rebuild its financial base, which relies on taxing agricultural production.”
Despite efforts by Nigerian authorities to close displaced persons camps in Borno, the security situation remains dire, prompting further displacement. The International Crisis Group emphasizes the importance of maintaining humanitarian assistance and enhancing military cooperation in the region to address the ongoing challenges.
The analysis underscores the complexity of the security landscape in northeastern Nigeria and the imperative of sustained efforts to counter the threat posed by Boko Haram and other extremist groups.