Amidst the ongoing civil war and political instability in Sudan, the country’s military faces a critical juncture, with the risk of self-destruction looming large. The conflict, which erupted ten months ago between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated tensions and sparked widespread violence beyond the capital, Khartoum.
Recent developments have seen the RSF gaining ground, dealing significant blows to the SAF, and capturing key territories in western, central, and eastern Sudan. The SAF’s inability to contain the RSF’s advances underscores a broader pattern of military and political missteps, fueling concerns about the state’s stability.
Analysts warn that the SAF’s failure to manage the crisis and address internal rifts effectively may exacerbate the risk of disintegration, threatening the collapse of the Sudanese state. This grim outlook comes amidst historical tensions between Sudan’s security organs and a struggle for dominance within the country’s security apparatus.
The situation is compounded by the SAF’s history of involvement in political coups and power struggles, with military strongmen often emerging as rulers. However, recent attempts by SAF leadership, including the selection of Abdelfatah El-Burhan as commander-in-chief, have failed to stabilize the country or assert military dominance.
As the conflict intensifies and the SAF grapples with internal divisions, the RSF’s leader, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti,” emerges as a formidable contender for Sudan’s leadership. Hemedti’s diplomatic maneuvers and growing influence in East Africa contrast sharply with the SAF’s faltering leadership, raising concerns about the military’s ability to navigate Sudan’s turbulent political landscape.