In a statement released on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced its expectation of a growth in global oil demand for the year 2024. This projection is attributed to strong economic activity in China and the global resurgence of air travel, which are anticipated to drive up the worldwide demand for oil.
These forecasts from OPEC stand in contrast to those of the International Energy Agency, which advises oil-consuming nations and predicted last month that oil demand would halve due to adverse economic effects. According to OPEC’s estimates, global oil demand is set to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024, while the International Energy Agency anticipates a decrease to 1.2 million barrels per day.
OPEC’s monthly report attributes this expected growth to the anticipated strong economic expansion this year. It emphasizes that continued robust economic activity in China, the global aviation rebound, and expected requirements from petrochemicals are fundamental factors driving the projected oil demand growth in 2024.
Regarding specific products, transportation fuel is expected to be the primary driver of demand. OPEC anticipates that gasoline consumption will exceed pre-pandemic levels, while aviation fuel will achieve slightly lower levels than those recorded in 2019.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency believes that weak global economic conditions, coupled with stricter fuel efficiency standards and increased production of electric vehicles, will dampen oil demand growth. OPEC, however, warns that inflation levels, monetary tightening measures, and sovereign debt levels could also impact global oil demand prospects for the current year.