In the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which has endured for seven months between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces militia, the situation continues to worsen with no resolution in sight. Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist, emphasizes the potentially devastating consequences of the war, including the deepening of divisions within Sudan, increased suffering for ordinary citizens, and the escalation of ethnic violence and genocide.
With over 9,000 casualties, 25 million people in need of humanitarian aid, and approximately 7.1 million displaced, Sudan faces the risk of becoming a failed state, echoing the fragility that persisted even before the conflict began.
The conflict’s impact has expanded beyond initial areas, affecting regions such as Gezira, White Nile, and West Kordofan states. Dr. Rafizadeh highlights in his Article on Arab news the heightened risk for civilians, medical staff, and humanitarian workers due to indiscriminate attacks, further underscoring the urgency for international intervention.
Dr. Rafizadeh warns that the continuation of the war may lead to a fractured Sudan with multiple self-declared governments, rendering the country dysfunctional, unable to provide essential services, and lacking international recognition. Additionally, the potential spillover effect on neighboring countries and the susceptibility to exploitation by terrorist groups pose significant threats to regional and global security.
In response to these looming crises, Dr. Rafizadeh calls on the international community to take immediate action to prevent Sudan’s descent into a failed state, curb ethnic and gender-based violence, and avert the possibility of another large-scale genocide. The urgency of addressing these issues cannot be overstated, as the consequences of inaction could be catastrophic for Sudan and its neighboring countries, amplifying threats to stability and security in the region.