The government anticipates economic growth to reach 3.7 percent next year, following an estimated growth of 3.4 percent this year. Projections suggest the continued dynamism of national economic activity will lead to a 4 percent growth by 2026.
In this regard, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, within its “Budget Execution and Macroeconomic Framework” report, stated that after a strong recovery in 2021 and significant growth moderation in 2022, the year 2023 is expected to witness an acceleration in economic growth.
The report highlighted that expectations for 2024 are based on a set of assumptions concerning the national and international environment, particularly “foreign demand directed towards Morocco at 2.9 percent, an average Brent barrel price of $79.8, a Euro-to-dollar exchange rate in 2024 equal to its 2023 level of 1.081, a Euro-to-dirham exchange rate of 10.70, and a dollar-to-dirham exchange rate of 9.80, taking into consideration the agricultural campaign with a value of 75 million quintals, which is expected to slightly increase the agricultural value-added by 5.9 percent.”
Consequently, after producing 33.4 million quintals of grains in 2022, it is expected that this production will reach 55 million quintals in 2023, representing a 64.7 percent increase. This improvement is projected to lead to a 4.8 percent increase in agricultural value-added after a 12.9 percent contraction in 2022.
The document affirmed that “non-agricultural value-added is expected to maintain its growth rate close to the previous year, reaching 3.4 percent in 2024 after 3.3 percent in 2023.”
According to the report, non-agricultural activities should continue on an upward trend. After growing by 3 percent in 2022, these activities are expected to grow at a rate of 3.3 percent in 2023, approaching pre-pandemic levels.
Therefore, the Ministry expects secondary activities to return to growth in 2023 after contraction in 2022, while tertiary activities are expected to experience a slight growth slowdown from 5.4 percent in 2022 to 4.1 percent in 2023.
Among the factors that could boost national economic growth, the report mentioned “the acceleration of consumption demand from the public sector, expected to increase by 5.9 percent in 2023. This will also be driven by the return of final household consumption, expected to rise to 2.4 percent,” according to the report. Additionally, the report forecasts that gross fixed capital formation will return to growth after contracting in 2022, with an expected increase of 7 percent.
The document also anticipates that foreign demand directed towards Morocco will continue to grow moderately in 2023. It is expected to increase by 2.9 percent in 2024 after 2.7 percent in 2023 and 5.6 percent in 2022. Consequently, this should lead to a slight acceleration in export growth by 6.4 percent, following 5.6 percent in 2023. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to grow at 5.9 percent after 5.3 percent in 2023.