Observers paint a bleak picture of the humanitarian situation in northern Mali as terrorist activities surge, compounded by recent developments in neighboring Niger and the withdrawal of UN peacekeeping forces (MINUSMA) from the country.
The current developments in Niger, where a sudden military coup ousted elected President Mohamed Bazoum on Wednesday, are expected to have repercussions on the already precarious security conditions in northern Mali.
While there is no apparent link between the group behind the current coup in Niger and the military rulers in Mali, the warnings issued by the new ruling military council in Niger to France about intervention in their affairs hint at the possibility of convergence with the evident Russian presence in both neighboring nations.
This belief is further strengthened by statements from the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, which referred to the Nigerien military coup as part of the “nation’s war against colonizers.”
The recent wave of international troop withdrawals from Mali has escalated concerns of a significant security vacuum, leaving room for an increase in terrorist activities. Due to escalating tensions between the military council in Mali and the European Union, particularly France and Germany, the EU terminated security training operations in Mali in mid-2022. Germany and Britain also announced the initiation of troop withdrawals.
International Efforts and Local Resilience in the Face of Challenges
At the end of June, the UN Security Council ended the presence of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in response to the wishes of the military council in Bamako. Reports indicate that the council has formed extensive alliances with the Wagner Group after French forces were expelled from the West African country.
The UN peacekeeping mission, established in 2013, was tasked with assisting in establishing stability, protecting civilians, upholding human rights, and supporting faltering peace efforts.
As the situation continues to evolve, international stakeholders remain vigilant about the escalating crisis and its potential implications on the security landscape in the region. The military dynamics, withdrawal of foreign troops, and the rise of extremist activities pose serious challenges to stability in Northern Mali.