The recent suspension of the grain export agreement between Ukraine and Russia is causing worries of price hikes and food insecurity in the medium term. The agreement, which allowed the departure of wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower shipments from Ukrainian ports, played a role in easing tensions in global grain markets. Its termination now raises concerns about potential price increases and food scarcity, especially in regions like Odessa, a major port in southern Ukraine, and in African and Middle Eastern countries heavily reliant on Ukrainian wheat exports.
The grain agreement had served as a rare moment of dialogue between the warring parties. Without diplomatic breakthroughs or discussions leading to improved security conditions in Ukraine, this forum was a minimal platform for exchange between Russia and Ukraine.
The agreement’s termination may escalate hostilities in the Black Sea and Odessa region, limiting humanitarian access and putting vulnerable populations at greater risk of violence. The potential impact of the suspension extends beyond Ukraine and Russia, as countries in Africa, particularly in North Africa, and the Middle East heavily dependent on Ukrainian wheat face concerns of higher prices and potential social destabilization.
Among the countries relying significantly on Ukrainian wheat exports are Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, both facing existing challenges that may worsen with rising food prices. Moreover, countries like Mauritania, importing 18% of their wheat from Ukraine, may also feel the effects of the agreement’s suspension. As the grain deal comes to an end, the implications on food security and geopolitical dynamics in the region are being closely monitored.
Afaf Al Fahchouch