In Ouagadougou, the cabinet meeting scheduled for June 19th, 2024, finally took place this Thursday morning. Ibrahim Traoré appeared smiling and relaxed in photos released by the Burkinabé authorities. This composed demeanor contrasts sharply with the prevailing uncertainty and rampant speculation in Burkina Faso, where several pressing questions remain.
The first question concerns the day-to-day residence of Burkina Faso’s head of state. Following the disastrous attack on Mansila on June 11th, 2024, which resulted in at least 100 military casualties, and the subsequent rocket incident at the Radio-Télévision du Burkina (RTB) during a cabinet meeting on June 12, the transitional president—who has been in power since the coup on September 20th, 2022—was reportedly relocated to the suburb of Loumbila in Ouagadougou. This move was accompanied by the swift reinforcement of Malian soldiers and Wagner Group operatives flown in from Gao, Mali.
The second concern revolves around the president’s leadership. The Mansila debacle has created significant unrest within the military, with some questioning the current administration’s ability to counter the advancing jihadists. Reports suggest that several Rapid Intervention Brigades (BIR) refused to engage in the counter-offensive at Mansila. The authority of the supreme commander, who once boasted of solving the terrorism issue in Burkina Faso within three months, is increasingly under scrutiny.
Meanwhile, numerous rumors are circulating in Ouagadougou regarding potential negotiations around the Burkinabé presidency. One prevalent theory is that “IB” will overcome the dissent within the military with the support of the two brotherly countries of the Sahel States Alliance (AES), particularly Mali, which is providing not just manpower but also strategic support. It is difficult for Bamako to envision a Burkinabé leader who is not aligned with AES’s grand vision.
Another hypothesis suggests a possible departure or sidelining of Captain Traoré. Many senior military officials have never fully accepted being under the command of a lower-ranking officer. Some are seeking a providential figure within the Burkinabé army who might be more receptive to a return to civilian rule and to the political voices that have been suppressed since Ibrahim Traoré’s rise to power.
Amidst these tensions, there is speculation about finding a leader within the military who would be more accommodating to civil society and the political sector, which have been largely silenced under Traoré’s regime. As the situation continues to evolve, the future leadership of Burkina Faso remains uncertain, with potential implications for both domestic stability and regional alliances.
This evolving narrative underscores the critical juncture at which Burkina Faso finds itself, with its leadership facing challenges from within the military and an increasingly concerned and restive civilian population. The coming weeks and months will likely be pivotal in determining the country’s trajectory.